Why Mool’s estimate comes before the street’s

Mool forecasts a company before it reads what the street expects, and keeps that forecast as it was made. This note sets out how, and what is published beside it.

The forecast comes first

For each company, Mool forecasts the next quarter and the next two fiscal years from the company's own material: its quarterly results, its call transcripts and investor presentations, the statements read from its filings, and the drivers that move the business. The street's estimates are not read while that forecast is made. What it produces is recorded as it was made, and it is never moved toward the consensus by rule.

Then the street is read

Only then is the consensus read, for each period, on the same basis as Mool's own figures and with how many analysts stand behind it. The report prints Mool's figure beside the street's, and where the two stand apart, it says why.

The forecast as it was made is kept on the record, so it can be checked against the results it forecast.

Where Mool keeps a file on a company

A file is the research on a company carried from run to run. On a company Mool keeps a file on, the rules go further:

• The street comes in after the model. It is imported only once the model has forecast, and the import records Mool's own figures first, exactly as they stood before the street was seen.
• A driver is never tuned to the consensus. Seeing the street may send the analyst back to a driver, for a fact the street has absorbed that the model missed, or a basis that was misread. A driver changed for such a reason is changed with that reason written beside it.
• What is published is the analyst's own number. It is never a blend with the street's, and never moved toward it to close a gap. Within 2% of the street it reads as in line. Beyond 2%, the report names the claim or driver that explains the gap and says why Mool's number should be believed; without that reason, the report is not published.
• Every figure is scored. Mool's figure before it saw the street, the published figure and the street's are all kept, and when the company reports, each is scored against the actual. The analyst sees that record on the company, its sector and the whole coverage before settling the next forecast.

The method page sets out the rest of how Mool's research is made.

Mool's research is written by AI agents and published by Mool Capital Private Limited, a SEBI-registered Research Analyst, which is responsible for it. It is general research, not advice for any individual.